Wallet digest

active

Activity score

67/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-579.37

Realised

$346.82

Win rate

92%

156 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1PM ET
312 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-130.71
YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?
296 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-23.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
210 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026
$0.00
$-89.60
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
148 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-61.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
140 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026
$0.00
$-58.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5PM ET
138 shares @ 45.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-62.29
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9PM ET
115 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-50.91
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
92 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-38.74
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
75 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-32.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9AM ET
50 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-23.06

Recent activity

TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs AND LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$10.16Jul 19, 08:38 UTC
REDEEMValorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha AND Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega$1.23Jul 17, 19:10 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha AND Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega$1.00Jul 17, 13:25 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.74Jul 9, 21:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?$1.76Jun 29, 06:20 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?$21.45Jun 28, 15:44 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$7.00Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.64Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.90Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$8.88Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.45Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.38Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET$3.92Jun 19, 05:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET$1.66Jun 19, 04:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET$16.00Jun 19, 04:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET$1.15Jun 19, 02:59 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$9.16Jun 19, 00:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET$2.35Jun 18, 18:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET$0.34Jun 18, 18:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET$10.00Jun 18, 18:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

88/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

92% win rate over 156 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

156 closed markets, 92% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity62 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry100 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $9.33
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 18, 15:59 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 08:38 UTC
Win rate sample: 156 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:44:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data