Afraid-Conservative
0x3af8dc95a04fc7a9a173479bc94a73d2cf65ed8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-281.73
Realised
$3.11
Win rate
64%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23?
1794 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23?
775 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.78
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23?
750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on July 8?
663 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23?
625 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 8?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 7?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 7?
600 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 7?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 7?
600 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?$0.06Jul 24, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026?$0.12Jul 24, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 23?$0.04Jul 23, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 23?$0.03Jul 23, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on July 23?$0.06Jul 22, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on July 23?$0.07Jul 22, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C or below on July 23?$0.06Jul 22, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C or below on July 23?$0.06Jul 22, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C or higher on July 22?$4.58Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 23?$0.25Jul 22, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 23?$0.07Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 23?$0.07Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 23?$0.24Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 23?$0.06Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 23?$0.01Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 23?$0.01Jul 22, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 22, 14:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.
36 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 11:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.