Political-Evening
0x3af93a31bc8de182afd814becfc626c3e6403737
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$2.16
Total PnL
$-691.09
Realised
$-22.76
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1442 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.16
$-12.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?
16350 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-46.73
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
15248 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-28.91
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
14330 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-14.33
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
12423 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-22.37
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March?
10448 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-59.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
9309 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.75
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
8333 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-14.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$15.13Jul 1, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan?$4.40Jun 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan?$5.14Jun 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$10.00Jun 28, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$20.91Jun 22, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$15.07Jun 22, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$15.06Jun 22, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$12.18Jun 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$2.75Jun 19, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$2.67Jun 19, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haiti win on 2026-06-19?$13.98Jun 19, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$21.42Jun 17, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$20.36Jun 17, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$14.38Jun 17, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$19.53Jun 17, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$4.95Jun 16, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$5.00Jun 16, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$5.20Jun 16, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 21:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 15:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.