Mellow-Conversation
0x3b1a8b39f8d3a4ce3fe7c1e752cf14c386834221
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$286.13
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$677.39
Win rate
100%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
150 shares @ 98.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$142.72
$-4.27
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
150 shares @ 68.4¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$114.22
$11.63
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
150 shares @ 90.5¢·now 19.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.18
$-106.58
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
354 shares @ 75.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-267.12
- FRANCE
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
309 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-182.38
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
250 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-13.20
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- UP
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on March 3?
200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.35
- DOWN
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2?
200 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- YES
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-14.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$2.00Jul 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$11.65Jul 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$186.12Jul 14, 13:30 UTC
- MERGEKristi Noem impeached in 2026?$0.88Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- MERGEOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.48Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$0.11Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be less than 150k?$0.11Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scotland win the 2026 Six Nations championship?$0.13Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on March 28?$0.14Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Poland by March 31?$0.14Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?$0.15Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on March 27?$0.15Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 16?$0.15Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0.15Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMOpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?$0.16Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 26?$0.16Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 29?$0.16Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 21?$0.16Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 20?$0.17Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 29?$0.18Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
83 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $98.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 13:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 17:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.