Vital-Action
0x3b51fad370b58cca315a4422791c13e22079b776
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$2.15
Total PnL
$-5.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.15
$0.15
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in December 2025?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: AI Edition$2.00Dec 13, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in December 2025?$3.00Dec 13, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeepSeek be #1 model before July?$1.05Dec 13, 12:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model on June 30?$1.37Dec 13, 12:29 UTC
- REDEEMOpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?$1.43Dec 13, 12:29 UTC
- REDEEMCanada tariffs on China in effect before July?$2.33Dec 13, 12:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$2.41Dec 13, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?$1.00Jun 2, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek be #1 model before July?$1.00Jun 2, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on June 30?$1.00Jun 2, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$2.00Jun 2, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring?$0.00Jun 2, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May?$0.00Jun 2, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference?$1.00Jun 2, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$1.01Jun 2, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?$1.12Jun 2, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? $1.00Mar 10, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada tariffs on China in effect before July?$1.00Mar 10, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico tariffs on China in effect before July?$2.00Mar 10, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May?$2.00Mar 10, 08:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 25, 07:48 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 13, 12:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.