0x3b5f0da890da365e26ea9f4e77207038d6d542b7
0x3b5f0da890da365e26ea9f4e77207038d6d542b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$50.83
Total PnL
$-44.93
Realised
$-19.88
Win rate
18%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 29?
22 shares @ 13.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$22.49
$19.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30?
17 shares @ 11.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$16.75
$14.76
- NO
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$6.58
$2.04
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 29?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$5.00
$1.35
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March?
160 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.32
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?
110 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.66
- YES
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $150-$152 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
86 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.57
- YES
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $148-$150 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
52 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.63
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
27 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.97
- YES
Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on March 29?$0.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 28?$0.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on March 27?$0.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 27?$0.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $536,000 and $542,000 on April 1?$0.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $590?$5.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 27?$5.00Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 29?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) close at $580-$590 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $285?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 23 above $370?$6.25Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon dip to $180 in March?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $180?$0.00Apr 1, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 23 above $156?$0.00Apr 1, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon dip to $192 in March?$0.00Apr 1, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on March 26?$0.00Apr 1, 20:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 20:20 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 20:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.