0x3b810d6ba3f56929e3449261a11ce8c8d1951ae7
0x3b810d6ba3f56929e3449261a11ce8c8d1951ae7
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-83.61
Win rate
59%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-50.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.01
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 19?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 18?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 19?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 19?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 19?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 17?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on July 19?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on July 18?
100 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 4?$1.08Aug 3, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 4?$11.99Aug 3, 18:34 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 4?$20.00Aug 3, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?$6.97Aug 3, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?$12.80Aug 3, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?$2.84Aug 3, 16:07 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?$15.53Aug 3, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 4?$3.26Aug 3, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 4?$1.25Aug 3, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 4?$16.20Aug 3, 16:03 UTC
- SPLITWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?$13.00Aug 3, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?$7.75Aug 3, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 5?$5.07Aug 3, 15:57 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5?$20.00Aug 3, 15:47 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 4?$20.00Aug 3, 15:46 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 4?$20.00Aug 3, 15:41 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?$9.00Aug 3, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?$2.65Aug 3, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 4?$8.23Aug 3, 15:36 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 4?$20.00Aug 3, 15:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
32 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $6.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 13:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 18:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.