Clean-Substitution
0x3ba951ec1e749e483d9c0568d976663ea1939c5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-445.92
Realised
$264.50
Win rate
68%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea election?
553 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2025$0.00
$-2.62
- YES
Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland?
279 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland?
279 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?
279 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Marek Woch be the next President of Poland?
279 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Joanna Senyszyn be the next President of Poland?
279 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea election?
247 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2025$0.00
$-3.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on June 15?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
144 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-0.44
- YES
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
144 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-0.44
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
73 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.