Gigantic-Ramen
0x3bbc51fe317aba3ffa7fec98f917b648d466a2b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$177.81
Total PnL
$-155.36
Realised
$-133.05
Win rate
12%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
200 shares @ 13.4¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.00
$-3.87
- YES
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
378 shares @ 8.2¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.89
$-11.95
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
150 shares @ 13.2¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.75
$-1.12
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?
52 shares @ 31.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.77
$0.77
- YES
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
144 shares @ 11.3¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.43
$-1.92
- YES
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?
203 shares @ 5.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.18
$0.65
- YES
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
150 shares @ 6.7¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
57 shares @ 15.2¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.80
$0.07
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 17.1¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.25
$-0.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?$7.00Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?$8.00Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?$5.00Jul 29, 05:50 UTC
- REWARD$3.92Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill RBC fail by end of 2026?$1.80Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lloyds fail by end of 2026?$0.63Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Truist fail by end of 2026?$0.76Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HSBC fail by end of 2026?$1.10Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Santander fail by end of 2026?$1.45Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bank of America fail by end of 2026?$0.84Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?$16.44Jul 28, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?$7.24Jul 28, 13:22 UTC
- REWARD$4.42Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$8.50Jul 27, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Syria recognize Israel by December 31?$4.22Jul 27, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$6.00Jul 27, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$13.00Jul 27, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?$1.04Jul 27, 07:57 UTC
- REWARD$6.53Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$13.00Jul 26, 23:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $4.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 17:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.