Soft-Likelihood
0x3bcd022c086aaa08e22b7cfa8dce45ba51f1ad00
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-18.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- OVER
NEC vs. PEC Zwolle: O/U 3.5
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-01-31?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 3?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23?
7 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22?
7 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-01-24?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$0.10Feb 11, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$0.00Feb 11, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$0.10Feb 11, 18:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.01Feb 11, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$1.00Feb 10, 08:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.00Feb 10, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.54Feb 10, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.46Feb 10, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.00Feb 10, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$0.00Feb 10, 07:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$5.00Feb 10, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$1.50Feb 10, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$1.50Feb 10, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.50Feb 10, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.50Feb 10, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.50Feb 10, 06:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 09:50 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 19:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".