Novel-Crocus
0x3bdef50c8b381224cbc43d720b43e0feeb5d5a18
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-418.59
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
287 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.44
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on January 6?
286 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.77
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 9?
280 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 14?
278 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.45
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on January 13?
278 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.17
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?
277 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13?
275 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.21
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 3?
275 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 11PM ET
275 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 13?
272 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.81
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5?$77.21Jul 5, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5?$0.23Jul 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 5?$74.43Jul 4, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 31?$70.69Jun 1, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 31?$0.16May 31, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 31?$69.19May 31, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 26?$4.00May 25, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25?$2.99May 24, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24?$78.52May 24, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24?$0.23May 24, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24?$76.01May 24, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24?$2.29May 23, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 23?$9.70May 22, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19?$3.19May 19, 01:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?$84.14May 15, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15?$81.70May 14, 21:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 8?$78.26May 8, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 8?$75.91May 7, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22?$66.82May 1, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22?$65.48Apr 21, 16:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $22.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 16:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 16:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.