Intentional-Punishment
0x3be578df57b561105d8f6578c1e1f2d0c079bc8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.33
Total PnL
$-201.98
Realised
$7.46
Win rate
67%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 10.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$3.40
$-0.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?
35 shares @ 8.7¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.48
$-0.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?
30 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.26
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on July 23?
50 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.20
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 11?
261 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4?
200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15?
134 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 9?
120 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 15?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 24?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 23?$0.21Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 24?$0.01Jul 22, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 23?$0.11Jul 22, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 23?$1.60Jul 22, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 23?$0.60Jul 22, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 23?$0.34Jul 22, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 23?$1.89Jul 22, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?$1.40Jul 22, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.28Jul 22, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.07Jul 22, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$0.30Jul 22, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 22?$0.10Jul 22, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 23?$0.71Jul 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 23?$0.21Jul 22, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 22?$2.15Jul 22, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 22?$17.90Jul 22, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 22?$0.59Jul 22, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 22?$21.37Jul 22, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 22?$16.13Jul 22, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 22?$4.81Jul 22, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
36 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 12:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.