Ragged-Lipstick
0x3bf7ef1b2dfc06902b06f890b315e222edc55ff4
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-797.26
Realised
$7.82
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
2026 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-39.99
- YES
Will FC Arouca win on 2025-12-28?
2010 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- CARDINALS
Cardinals vs. Bengals
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- JETS
Patriots vs. Jets
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
250 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
206 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-23.94
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 5AM ET
204 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
162 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$0.00Apr 22, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.29Apr 21, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$7.09Apr 21, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$6.56Apr 21, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.98Apr 21, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.23Apr 21, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1.95Apr 21, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$5.00Apr 21, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.60Apr 21, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.25Apr 21, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.25Apr 21, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 13:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.13Apr 21, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.00Apr 21, 13:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 09:20 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 14:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.