Outrageous-Tonality
0x3bfee82e9a956d9918441d2b20a88e9978fe3460
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$2.21
Total PnL
$-4.13
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.15
$0.02
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$1.05
$-0.06
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
3 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Fernandes win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.13Jun 28, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.26Jun 28, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.26Jun 28, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.10Jun 28, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.11May 30, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.18May 30, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.10May 30, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 29?$1.06May 30, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.25May 30, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 29?$1.06Apr 28, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.10Apr 28, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.20Apr 28, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$2.22Apr 28, 05:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$4.72Apr 28, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?$1.30Mar 9, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$2.10Mar 9, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$4.70Mar 9, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$1.11Mar 9, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?$11.42Mar 9, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$1.10Feb 5, 06:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $408.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 23, 13:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 01:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.