Alert-Chief
0x3c322f425921e162fe124378245b458f802db464
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$-636.02
Win rate
38%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- YES
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
26295 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-151.91
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
21740 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-336.51
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
13990 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-135.98
- YES
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
10349 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-146.03
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?
9805 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.80
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 4AM ET
9567 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-31.87
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 16?
8987 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-53.99
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
8710 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.98
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 13?
8000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?
7986 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-11.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?$12.36Mar 17, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$30.48Mar 17, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$92.56Mar 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$30.85Mar 14, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$12.21Mar 14, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 14?$2.67Mar 14, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada strike Iran by March 31?$12.53Mar 14, 19:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$333.68Mar 14, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$5.29Mar 14, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.28Mar 14, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$5.28Mar 14, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$5.28Mar 14, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$3.16Mar 14, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$10.00Mar 14, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$11.33Mar 14, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.00Mar 14, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by March 13?$0.83Mar 14, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$9.43Mar 14, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$4.64Mar 14, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$2.83Mar 14, 19:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
37 closed markets, 38% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $26.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 18:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 01:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.