Weary-Bridge
0x3c3a075d6cf2c22fc11b0a24ab76566d300ce400
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-550.43
Realised
$38.98
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1470 shares @ 38.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$610.93
$49.26
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2065 shares @ 28.9¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$577.15
$-19.70
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
25 shares @ 81.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$24.53
$4.53
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
11 shares @ 88.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$11.30
$1.30
- NO
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?
10 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.36
$0.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13?
4684 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-66.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14?
423 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-65.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 15?
248 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-93.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 13?
193 shares @ 65.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-126.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 14?
192 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 9, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.