Sociable-Cameo
0x3c4753775403ef832be9b3bd702fe9efb49fe9be
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$9.30
Total PnL
$-345.54
Realised
$-69.49
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?
7 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$6.69
$4.95
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.36
$0.42
- YES
Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
81 shares @ 12.8¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$1.25
$-9.08
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
30001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-30.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
6667 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
762 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $610?
414 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 9 above $680?
394 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$5.00Mar 19, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$60.00Mar 19, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$5.00Mar 19, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$5.00Mar 19, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Mar 17, 19:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.57Mar 17, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?$14.31Mar 14, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular go clubbing 9-10 times in March?$15.00Mar 14, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMTimberwolves vs. Clippers$9.58Mar 12, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $330?$0.53Mar 12, 04:56 UTC
- REWARD$0.19Mar 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular go clubbing 9-10 times in March?$3.63Mar 11, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?$9.95Mar 11, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$6.25Mar 11, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?$12.23Mar 11, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?$10.33Mar 11, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?$10.00Mar 11, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2026?$10.00Mar 11, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYTimberwolves vs. Clippers$5.16Mar 11, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$14.58Mar 11, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 20:10 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 19, 19:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.