0x3c484ab352d9bc4f1c1b590b62f61948285f6af3
0x3c484ab352d9bc4f1c1b590b62f61948285f6af3
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
187
Open notional
$302.58
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$-13.68
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 187- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?
43 shares @ 24.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$42.89
$32.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17?
40 shares @ 35.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$40.39
$26.10
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
36 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.02
$3.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16?
30 shares @ 33.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$30.15
$19.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?
28 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$28.03
$19.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16?
24 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$24.03
$15.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?
21 shares @ 21.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$20.57
$16.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13?
18 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$18.07
$12.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 12?
18 shares @ 25.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$18.00
$13.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 13?
18 shares @ 30.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$17.72
$12.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 19?$1.90Apr 17, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 19?$2.09Apr 17, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 19?$2.09Apr 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 19?$1.80Apr 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 19?$1.89Apr 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18?$1.65Apr 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 18?$2.07Apr 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 18?$2.09Apr 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?$1.85Apr 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 19?$2.08Apr 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 19?$2.10Apr 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?$2.20Apr 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19?$1.85Apr 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 19?$2.08Apr 17, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 19?$2.16Apr 17, 14:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 21:00 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 17:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.