Nimble-Bellows
0x3c77e0de6d7a492284903dc4870ce55a71bbd96b
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$11.03
Total PnL
$3.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAndy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?$7.60May 11, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.56May 11, 21:23 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$5.81Apr 27, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$5.00Apr 13, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$5.00Apr 13, 18:26 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by March 31, 2026?$3.31Apr 13, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by March 31, 2026?$3.04Feb 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$3.04Feb 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$23.48Feb 28, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$6.25Feb 28, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by March 31, 2026?$17.15Feb 28, 10:11 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Feb 28, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Feb 28, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by March 31, 2026?$6.60Feb 23, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$10.00Feb 23, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$9.23Feb 23, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?$7.46Feb 23, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$3.00Feb 16, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$2.83Feb 16, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$4.64Feb 14, 12:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $6.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 2, 18:22 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 21:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.