Mellow-Conference
0x3c7e6fe2981c6e01d72dbf8077f3701f6e5946ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$193.33
Total PnL
$-891.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1333 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$193.33
$-6.67
- YES
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?
1125 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
486 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
380 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
300 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-135.00
- YES
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025
250 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
200 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-90.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
200 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-89.99
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
185 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-83.25
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.