Pungent-Tapioca-Mandate
0x3c82ccc4cdf5881062d0fd2017e58304f5befd79
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$4.00
Total PnL
$-18.90
Realised
$-0.53
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.00
$2.00
- NO
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph?
1246 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 16?
139 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
60 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 28?
12 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on August 11?
9 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
3 shares @ 57.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?$1.05Aug 17, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?$1.05Aug 17, 22:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 17?$0.29Aug 17, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 17?$3.99Aug 17, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?$13.96Aug 17, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 17?$10.71Aug 17, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?$1.82Aug 16, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 16?$1.05Aug 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?$1.04Aug 15, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?$10.98Aug 15, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?$9.34Aug 15, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.02Aug 15, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.03Aug 15, 04:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?$1.46Aug 15, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?$3.31Aug 15, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?$3.15Aug 15, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?$3.02Aug 15, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-14? AND Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?$5.09Aug 14, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-14? AND Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-08-14?$1.00Aug 14, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?$8.91Aug 14, 16:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 07:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.