Wallet digest

active

Activity score

60/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.6K

Realised

$5.3K

Win rate

91%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 43

YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
23176 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$0.00
$-23.18
UNDER
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 156.5
23170 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-12.3K
UNDER
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 163.5
9782 shares @ 52.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-5.2K
YES
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
8121 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-1.4K
YES
Will Iran strike eight countries in March?
7215 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-798.76
YES
Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj end in a draw?
4356 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-43.48
YES
Will Dow Jones (DJIA) hit 48300 (HIGH) in March?
3972 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-3.97
YES
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
3527 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-35.15
UNDER
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 1.5
3294 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-32.90
UNDER
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 3.5
3139 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-31.39

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$28.43Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$53.31Jun 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$71.26Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$54.63Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$33.80Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.63Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$16.08Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.36Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.37Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.62Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.19May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.06May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.19May 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.48May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.98May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.29May 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$41.10May 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$121.00May 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.56May 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$197.89May 8, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

27/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

91% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity23 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry9 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk51 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 7
Avg trade size: $407.85
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 16, 19:28 UTC
Last active: Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:35:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data