Quarterly-Lantern
0x3ca82e40d029decf5b853593fba55fe226214bc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$100.07
Total PnL
$-518.22
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
100 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$100.07
$0.20
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
1923 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?
976 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?
515 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-135.42
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
300 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?
100 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$99.87Jan 18, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?$135.42Aug 14, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?$100.00Aug 14, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$250.00Aug 13, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?$8.80May 2, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?$0.20May 2, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$24.00Apr 30, 12:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$166.67Apr 30, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025?$0.00Apr 29, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMTrump positive favorability on April 1?$0.00Apr 29, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMTrump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before March?$0.00Apr 29, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$0.00Apr 29, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$0.00Apr 29, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$24.00Mar 17, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?$0.00Feb 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?$0.00Feb 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?$0.00Feb 21, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?$0.00Feb 11, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?$0.00Feb 11, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?$0.00Feb 11, 20:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $38.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 25, 20:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 18, 20:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".