Mad-Premise
0x3cae55d88390c57667ea306368b37a05e22ee877
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-672.48
Realised
$-16.31
Win rate
17%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18?
248 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-33.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29?
213 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12?
162 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19?
151 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-6.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or below on May 31?
145 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3?
144 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?
137 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-39.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14?
112 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12?
105 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5?
104 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-13.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21?$25.70Jun 22, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?$12.30Jun 21, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21?$4.18Jun 21, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?$1.88Jun 21, 12:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?$5.23Jun 21, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?$1.04Jun 21, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?$1.04Jun 21, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21?$0.99Jun 21, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21?$1.28Jun 21, 11:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?$1.80Jun 21, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21?$1.70Jun 21, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?$2.35Jun 21, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21?$0.71Jun 21, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?$1.96Jun 21, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?$1.96Jun 21, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21?$4.02Jun 21, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21?$0.97Jun 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21?$0.96Jun 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21?$0.96Jun 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21?$0.95Jun 21, 10:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 03:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.