0x3cc8b0387b135192925825c2a3e01d24daf8eb8b
0x3cc8b0387b135192925825c2a3e01d24daf8eb8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$50.39
Total PnL
$10.17
Realised
$-0.22
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during remarks in New York?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$13.51
$8.51
- YES
Will Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$6.67
$1.67
- YES
Will Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in New York?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$6.25
$1.25
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
18 shares @ 28.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.80
$0.80
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$5.59
$0.59
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$5.44
$0.44
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$4.94
$-0.06
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.17
$-2.83
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$22.73Aug 14, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$5.14Aug 14, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$5.05Aug 14, 12:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$7.69Aug 14, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$5.18Aug 13, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$5.00Aug 13, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York?$5.05Aug 12, 23:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?$0.00Aug 12, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?$10.64Aug 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$5.19Aug 12, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during remarks in New York?$5.13Aug 12, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in New York?$5.04Aug 12, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$5.09Aug 11, 23:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$7.25Aug 11, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?$5.11Aug 11, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$6.85Aug 11, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$9.43Aug 11, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of August 3 2026?$13.16Aug 11, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$5.12Aug 8, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?$5.00Aug 8, 11:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 02:46 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 20:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.