Failing-Anarchist
0x3ccd886d1255c81b5291f76b8dbc8e6155a4391b
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-336.06
Realised
$-0.92
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 31?
286 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on January 31?
224 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 29?
192 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on February 5?
142 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or higher on January 30?
122 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on February 1?
108 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 28?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 29?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21?
73 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-7.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 10?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$7.85Mar 20, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?$0.01Mar 20, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?$0.51Mar 20, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18?$6.56Mar 19, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?$0.26Mar 19, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?$0.08Mar 19, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 18?$1.97Mar 18, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?$1.45Mar 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 18?$0.29Mar 16, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?$1.47Mar 16, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 16?$2.20Mar 15, 07:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 16?$0.48Mar 14, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 16?$2.35Mar 14, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 16?$1.93Mar 14, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?$8.12Mar 13, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 13?$0.63Mar 13, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 13?$0.19Mar 13, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 13?$0.32Mar 13, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12?$0.41Mar 12, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12?$0.55Mar 12, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 09:40 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 07:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.