0x3cd61fb22a78c102aac0ed89712d5ccfee24afec
0x3cd61fb22a78c102aac0ed89712d5ccfee24afec
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$37.47
Total PnL
$-91.47
Realised
$-5.03
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 71.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.07
$2.00
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 72.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.61
$1.53
- NO
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?
6 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.54
$0.49
- NO
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.48
$0.43
- NO
Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
4 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.53
$-0.02
- NO
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.44
$-2.61
- NO
Will Brandi Gabbard win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.27
$0.07
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$2.16
$0.14
- YES
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
69 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$1.70
$-0.38
- NO
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.69
$-4.36
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?$5.55Jul 19, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMNetflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%?$3.03Jul 16, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I?$6.39Jul 14, 23:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June?$2.50Jul 14, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?$3.85Jul 14, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMPepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.0%-2.5%?$12.64Jul 9, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?$2.43Jul 7, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$7.75Jul 6, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$2.47Jul 4, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$11.11Jul 2, 19:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?$5.00Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?$5.00Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$6.76Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?$7.58Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 20?$7.69Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?$9.38Jul 1, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?$10.00Jul 1, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?$12.82Jul 1, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$12.99Jul 1, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$29.33Jul 1, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $3.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 22:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 23:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.