Spotted-Chairlift
0x3cee2daa52d343e54f4d0f733e8a522bf7efbd00
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$187.52
Total PnL
$-4.4K
Realised
$199.50
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- YES
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
110 shares @ 72.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$83.05
$3.85
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
230 shares @ 54.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$56.35
$-67.85
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
300 shares @ 24.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$25.50
$-46.50
- NO
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?
33 shares @ 49.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.05
$2.64
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
250 shares @ 16.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.88
$-37.13
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.70
$-5.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
360 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-26.85
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
310 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-115.55
- NO
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
300 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?$150.00Aug 15, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by August 31?$8.69Aug 13, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by August 31?$1.85Aug 13, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by August 31?$5.83Aug 13, 12:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$269.50Aug 11, 10:43 UTC
- REWARD$1.78Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?$6.00Aug 6, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?$0.81Aug 6, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?$3.21Aug 6, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$40.00Aug 6, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$157.22Aug 5, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$4.28Aug 5, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$121.50Aug 5, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?$51.00Aug 5, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$79.20Aug 5, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$172.90Aug 5, 02:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.87Aug 5, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?$0.80Aug 5, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.50Aug 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?$105.00Aug 4, 22:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $50.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 08:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.