Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-62.02

Realised

$-2.76

Win rate

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 13

UP
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
39 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-11.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
35 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.48
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
32 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.70
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
27 shares @ 22.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-6.10
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
20 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-8.60
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
17 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.05
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
15 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
10 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
10 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.20
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
10 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.35

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$1.08May 29, 11:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$0.12May 29, 10:31 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.13May 29, 10:31 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$0.16May 29, 10:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.24May 29, 10:31 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.60May 29, 10:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$1.03May 29, 10:26 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.24May 28, 09:56 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.24May 28, 09:56 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.24May 28, 09:56 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$2.24May 28, 09:56 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$4.89May 28, 09:54 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$3.84May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.23May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.29May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.68May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.89May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$1.78May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.54May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$2.49May 28, 09:51 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $2.56
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 28, 09:38 UTC
Last active: May 29, 11:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:33:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data