Competent-Chestnut
0x3d1b085b9566bcdb70f5aced40a278768cac5b55
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.66
Total PnL
$-290.07
Realised
$-53.22
Win rate
23%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- OVER
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- UNDER
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
13 shares @ 45.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.90
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
12 shares @ 65.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.16
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
11 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)$2.44Aug 22, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5$1.03Aug 22, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5$1.02Aug 22, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$5.35Aug 22, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)$1.03Aug 22, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?$1.02Aug 22, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?$1.02Aug 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$2.06Aug 22, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs$7.03Aug 22, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$12.72Aug 22, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs$5.07Aug 22, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$9.58Aug 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner$3.77Aug 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$5.05Aug 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group$5.05Aug 22, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLLoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$8.32Aug 22, 11:46 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner$0.00Aug 22, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.00Aug 22, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs$2.03Aug 22, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$5.10Aug 22, 10:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 19:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 18:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.