Stormy-Conspirator
0x3d1d955fa319f2df43d87237c4a0c10c04049e61
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$302.83
Win rate
98%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?
1357 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.80
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?
1357 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.80
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo?
1357 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.80
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo?
1357 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.80
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo?
694 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-40.84
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?
674 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-39.66
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?
641 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-37.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 4?
632 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-57.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 4?
632 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-57.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on May 4?
632 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-57.46
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?$45.00Aug 1, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?$3.41Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C on August 1?$4.99Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 1?$4.61Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on August 1?$4.81Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 1?$4.19Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 1?$4.90Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 1?$3.20Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 39°C or higher on August 1?$4.99Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 1?$4.99Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 1?$4.99Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?$50.00Jul 31, 23:33 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 1?$35.00Jul 31, 23:33 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 1?$70.00Jul 31, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 1?$5.00Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 1?$4.04Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 1?$4.98Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 1?$4.95Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 1?$4.99Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C or higher on August 1?$4.86Jul 31, 23:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
50 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 23:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 00:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.