Quintessential-Underwriting
0x3d266ec940fa86c2671cfad46f4bfc9e9eb5a28b
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-483.79
Realised
$24.96
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 25?
3387 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.77
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
1168 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 24?
1001 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 22?
620 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 14?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 13?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$2.11Jul 20, 19:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$2.33Jul 20, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$1.04Jul 20, 17:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$10.15Jul 20, 17:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$125.18Jul 20, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$52.77Jul 20, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$50.51Jul 20, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$50.03Jul 20, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$52.63Jul 20, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$50.17Jul 20, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$21.56Jul 20, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$101.12Jul 20, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?$1.97Jul 18, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$2.04Jul 18, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$3.18Jul 18, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.03Jul 18, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.00Jul 18, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$3.16Jul 18, 17:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 11:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 20:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.