Vague-Membrane
0x3d9066cadf0f36486ca26b2b209e3d051632bf35
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$837.77
Realised
$130.75
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
2765 shares @ 57.7¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.2K
$562.13
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
1738 shares @ 40.9¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.1K
$400.39
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
1161 shares @ 38.5¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$191.50
$-255.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$11.85Jun 26, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 26, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$12.49Jun 26, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$337.60Jun 26, 07:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$133.32Jun 26, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$2.0KJun 26, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$540.91Jun 25, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?$457.99Jun 25, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$187.23Jun 21, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$174.95Jun 19, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?$113.45Jun 18, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?$100.32Jun 17, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$0.75Jun 17, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$141.14Jun 17, 04:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$100.44Jun 17, 04:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.42Jun 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$144.00Jun 16, 20:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?$0.00Jun 16, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$276.86Jun 16, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$150.00Jun 15, 01:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $121.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 20:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 10:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.