Unwilling-Apple
0x3dbecd7f828e4a146f54fb61432bb3cb40baa158
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-295.02
Realised
$3.95
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?
5787 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on May 29?
1192 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19?
1128 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 17:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 17:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 22?$0.00Jun 22, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22?$1.05Jun 22, 08:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 03:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 18:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.