Studious-Condominium
0x3dc44175ae2d0175ee7bc76cd9ec04b614a91fd8
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.3K
Realised
$-71.33
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on August 3?
165 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-82.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 3?
165 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-82.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on August 3?
165 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-82.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 2?
159 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-79.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 2?
159 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-79.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on August 2?
159 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-79.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 2?
159 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-79.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 29?
157 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-78.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on July 29?
157 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-78.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 29?
157 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-78.69
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?$0.14Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?$0.00Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?$0.76Aug 15, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?$0.02Aug 15, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?$0.36Aug 15, 01:40 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?$25.00Aug 15, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 15?$3.85Aug 15, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 15?$3.85Aug 15, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 15?$4.86Aug 15, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 15?$4.96Aug 15, 01:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $3.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 01:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 12:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.