Noxious-Revitalization
0x3de8854c842b78382a76bc14e307029a7fd5a747
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$73.24
Total PnL
$-17.29
Realised
$0.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
78 shares @ 47.1¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.08
$6.53
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
81 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.78
$-1.22
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
30 shares @ 32.9¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.85
$-5.15
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
105 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.69
$-2.31
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
854 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.84
$-14.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$6.52Jun 25, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$6.12Jun 25, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$7.00Jun 22, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$6.98Jun 22, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$3.00Jun 22, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$3.11Jun 22, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$14.00Jun 21, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$13.71Jun 21, 11:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$6.00Jun 20, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan win on 2026-06-21?$6.32Jun 20, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.00Jun 20, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$3.45Jun 20, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scotland win on 2026-06-19?$0.00Jun 20, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$2.03Jun 20, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-21?$6.07Jun 20, 06:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$8.47Jun 20, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-19?$2.05Jun 19, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$5.06Jun 19, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $8.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 06:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 07:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.