Gray-Behavior
0x3df9ce05e878f7da1e1d99d92ba9474d31c62bdd
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$21.12
Total PnL
$-17.01
Realised
$22.87
Win rate
100%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 14?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$3.86
$2.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$3.17
$2.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 15?
19 shares @ 10.6¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.93
$0.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 16?
7 shares @ 13.7¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$2.01
$1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 16?
21 shares @ 9.5¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$1.68
$-0.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 14?
21 shares @ 9.5¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 14?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 14?
11 shares @ 8.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 15?
28 shares @ 7.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.75
$-1.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 14?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.60
$-1.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 13?$0.00Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 15?$2.09Jul 14, 06:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?$2.00Jul 14, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?$2.09Jul 14, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 14?$2.00Jul 14, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 14?$2.09Jul 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?$2.00Jul 14, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 14?$2.09Jul 14, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 16?$2.09Jul 14, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on July 16?$2.09Jul 14, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?$2.09Jul 14, 05:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 17:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 07:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.