Frugal-Polarisation
0x3e27b4fc18d61173110f6edb21e107bc34819890
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$9.7K
Total PnL
$-9.6K
Realised
$-403.44
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- NO
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3000 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$288.00
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
2000 shares @ 68.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$-30.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
2700 shares @ 59.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.3K
$-282.47
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 14.6¢·now 82.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$828.00
$682.00
- NO
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?
802 shares @ 92.4¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$729.64
$-11.04
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
500 shares @ 69.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$462.50
$113.50
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
400 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$342.00
$6.00
- NO
Huddle FDV above $400M one day after launch?
346 shares @ 97.9¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$327.45
$-10.98
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 66.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$225.96
$-38.04
- NO
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?
224 shares @ 97.0¢·now 93.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$209.64
$-7.62
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.23Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.24Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.