Fat-Populist
0x3e6f504826e2391a0425a158367c4aa8eb27f19d
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.0K
Realised
$24.87
Win rate
30%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
2798 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
2680 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-19.24
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
2400 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-170.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
2164 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-13.55
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
1054 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-15.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
683 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-24.39
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
672 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-13.92
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
661 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-19.47
- UP
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
654 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
637 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET$2.00Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET$20.00Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET$1.66Jul 14, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 14, 1PM ET$14.49Jul 14, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3AM ET$13.95Jul 11, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 6PM ET$41.01Jul 10, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 6PM ET$7.50Jul 10, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 6PM ET$16.22Jul 10, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 6PM ET$15.46Jul 10, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 3PM ET$1.17Jul 10, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$20.75Jun 1, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$20.83Jun 1, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$38.46Jun 1, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$20.67Jun 1, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$21.36Jun 1, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$43.48Jun 1, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$20.76Jun 1, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$21.12May 31, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$48.78May 31, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$20.83May 31, 12:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $16.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 10:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.