Smug-Vine
0x3e7453fcd9e8b4b8525fdface2755318078f5750
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$168.16
Total PnL
$0.30
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
65 shares @ 99.4¢·now 96.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.20
$-1.80
- NO
Will Trump send the national guard to New York City?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Eileen Higgins win the 2025 Miami mayoral election?
9 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$9.47
$0.47
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$9.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
8 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.03
$0.03
- YES
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
8 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$8.02
$0.02
- MAMDANI
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Spanberger?
8 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$8.02
$0.02
- NO
OpenAI acquired in 2025?
7 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.37
$0.37
- NO
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?
7 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?
7 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$7.02
$0.15
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $6.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.