Humongous-Conservative
0x3e8b0064f659b10f89bfca317cf523597f561754
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$19.95
Win rate
67%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?
10050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.05
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?
2743 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-40.34
- NO
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?
2489 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
1222 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-22.02
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
860 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.45
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 29?
647 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.46
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
524 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-119.08
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$0.04Feb 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs$1.00Feb 13, 14:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$19.98Feb 13, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.52Feb 13, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.19Feb 13, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.12Feb 13, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.17Feb 13, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.88Feb 13, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.12Feb 13, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.53Feb 13, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.80Feb 13, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.12Feb 13, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.55Feb 13, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$2.00Feb 13, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.28Feb 13, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$0.72Feb 13, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$2.00Feb 13, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.00Feb 13, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$2.00Feb 13, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$2.00Feb 13, 10:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 13, 08:24 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.