Reasonable-Tonality
0x3e940408e48f247fc09613c48c2636c34e5b79a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$368.02
Total PnL
$13.93
Realised
$5.02
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026?
70 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$69.44
$0.64
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
65 shares @ 90.5¢·now 92.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$60.23
$1.40
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
60 shares @ 88.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.30
$0.98
- NO
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.13
$2.16
- NO
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?
40 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$39.54
$1.13
- NO
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?
34 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$33.53
$0.30
- NO
Will Lloyds fail by June 30, 2026?
26 shares @ 93.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.72
$1.33
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June?
10 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.95
$0.20
- NO
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.07
$0.12
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?
5 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.99
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Santander fail by June 30, 2026?$29.73Jun 13, 00:57 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$5.00Jun 12, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Canada (-1.5)$5.00Jun 12, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Canada (-1.5)$4.82Jun 12, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Santander fail by June 30, 2026?$29.40Jun 12, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$4.95Jun 12, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLCanada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5$4.70Jun 12, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$9.69Jun 12, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$9.66Jun 12, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$4.71Jun 12, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYCanada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5$4.65Jun 12, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$4.65Jun 12, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$8.14Jun 12, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$4.71Jun 12, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$4.64Jun 12, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?$19.78Jun 12, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$9.00Jun 11, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026?$6.43Jun 9, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?$8.89Jun 3, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?$4.96Jun 3, 16:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 04:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.