Frayed-Cry
0x3e993f37f785d078642b8d73ca882dd3535ad9c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$5.88
Total PnL
$-352.20
Realised
$10.26
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
40 shares @ 2.7¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.14
$0.06
- YES
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.11
$-0.89
- YES
Will Rihanna release an album in 2026?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-1.04
- YES
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.92
$-0.07
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
7 shares @ 30.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.67
$-1.33
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
20 shares @ 5.7¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.43
$-0.71
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-0.82
- YES
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
50 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.20
$-21.30
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.18
$-0.82
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
1165 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-41.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$45.00Jun 14, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$0.00Apr 6, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.00Apr 6, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Apr 6, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$1.90Apr 4, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$2.08Apr 4, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump attend UFC 327?$4.50Apr 4, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.55Mar 6, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.08Mar 5, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYVenezuela coup attempt by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$6.66Feb 13, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$3.30Feb 13, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?$1.14Feb 12, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Seahawks (-4.5)$1.96Feb 9, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?$0.39Feb 8, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?$0.65Feb 8, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?$1.20Feb 8, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08?$1.00Feb 8, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Seahawks (-4.5)$1.00Feb 8, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$6.55Feb 6, 20:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 06:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.