0x3e9aa20fb7f7dabb7b095b3ec34a87b6b4e2f9a4
0x3e9aa20fb7f7dabb7b095b3ec34a87b6b4e2f9a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$13.23
Total PnL
$-237.77
Realised
$-1.35
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11 shares @ 82.9¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.38
$0.44
- NO
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.85
$1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 20?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
446 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.30
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?
220 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
184 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.07
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
72 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
67 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.51
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
58 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
41 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 20?$1.18Jul 20, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.58Jul 20, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)$1.10Mar 15, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?$2.70Mar 15, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1?$0.01Mar 15, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$41.00Mar 15, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Addams Family" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$5.17Mar 4, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$1.10Mar 1, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$3.79Mar 1, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$5.03Mar 1, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$3.26Mar 1, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$3.25Mar 1, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$5.54Mar 1, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - February 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$3.57Mar 1, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3.63Mar 1, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3.92Mar 1, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$3.53Mar 1, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.26Mar 1, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$3.82Mar 1, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.00Mar 1, 02:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $3.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 1, 00:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 16:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.