Tired-Mallet
0x3eb6ed5c992f81bb332434e1222b7913f5cae414
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$51.03
Total PnL
$0.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.70
$0.02
- NO
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.67
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 8?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$8.18
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or higher on June 8?
4 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$3.60
$0.00
- NO
Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.49
$0.00
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on June 8?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$2.10
$0.00
- NO
Will DeepSeek have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.08
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8?
2 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$1.56
$0.01
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 8?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$1.50
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 8?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$1.39
$0.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$34.91Jul 13, 22:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $8.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 14:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.