Friendly-Cephalopod
0x3eccb67e467ab5cade77e17fe8b407450d691d30
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$871.75
Total PnL
$-14.1K
Realised
$-970.76
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
931 shares @ 68.9¢·now 67.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$625.17
$-16.54
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
116 shares @ 81.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.16
$4.57
- NO
Will Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month?
67 shares @ 82.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$61.59
$6.38
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
280 shares @ 49.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$32.20
$-105.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 52.5¢·now 43.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$17.20
$-3.80
- NO
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 28, 2026?
22 shares @ 79.1¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$16.42
$-1.02
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
40 shares @ 36.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$9.40
$-5.20
- YES
Will Trump say "Smithsonian" in August?
20 shares @ 41.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.00
$0.80
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
56 shares @ 48.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.60
$-25.90
- YES
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing?
17400 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-440.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month?$6.83Jul 29, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.63Jul 29, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.64Jul 29, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.65Jul 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.66Jul 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.24Jul 29, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$1.36Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.62Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.63Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.64Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.65Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.66Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.67Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.68Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.69Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.70Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.73Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.80Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.68Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$6.63Jul 29, 07:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.