Improbable-Raspberry
0x3eeb634cb6a8260bde4dd1bb90783aaba2797160
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-567.24
Realised
$135.49
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
713 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-46.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
709 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-37.09
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
700 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-24.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
469 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-69.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
411 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-67.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
410 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-8.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
359 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-34.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
321 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
255 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
236 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-27.09
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$28.65Feb 22, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$16.00Feb 22, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$10.00Feb 22, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$5.00Feb 22, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$30.00Feb 22, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$27.19Feb 22, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$20.00Feb 22, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$10.00Feb 22, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$21.58Feb 22, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$20.00Feb 22, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$46.27Feb 22, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$20.00Feb 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.00Feb 22, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.00Feb 22, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$16.41Feb 22, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.00Feb 22, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$29.05Feb 22, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$20.00Feb 22, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$10.00Feb 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$94.09Feb 22, 06:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $21.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 06:13 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 22, 17:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.