Closed-Fresco-Place
0x3f1d9fe7f5e76f186d27d5708ad7f7a1460356a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$113.37
Total PnL
$-1.56
Realised
$-2.02
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?
40 shares @ 54.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$22.20
$0.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?
40 shares @ 48.5¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$17.40
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?
20 shares @ 57.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$11.90
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?
20 shares @ 48.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$11.31
$1.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22?
15 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$8.95
$-0.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?
15 shares @ 56.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$8.63
$0.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?
15 shares @ 40.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$6.12
$0.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22?
15 shares @ 37.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$5.84
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$4.90
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?
10 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$4.14
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?$4.00Aug 21, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?$2.86Aug 21, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?$6.50Aug 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?$2.15Aug 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?$2.06Aug 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?$0.26Aug 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 23?$7.42Aug 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22?$3.06Aug 21, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?$7.70Aug 21, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?$1.90Aug 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?$7.31Aug 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 23?$0.08Aug 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?$0.67Aug 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?$1.89Aug 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 22?$3.18Aug 21, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?$0.43Aug 21, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 22?$10.60Aug 21, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?$9.80Aug 21, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 22?$9.80Aug 21, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 23?$1.71Aug 21, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 19:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.