Polished-Puma
0x3f20af8920a1fa82676e33f9661f5e4daa97c51e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?
2237 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
1455 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-220.00
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
890 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-534.50
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
671 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-44.31
- NO
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
345 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
328 shares @ 67.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-220.00
- YES
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
282 shares @ 42.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- NO
Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
132 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$10.00Feb 17, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$20.00Feb 6, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$150.00Feb 6, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$100.00Feb 6, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$200.00Feb 6, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$20.00Jan 26, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$20.00Jan 26, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$347.37Jan 26, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$100.00Jan 19, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$24.50Jan 19, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$99.97Jan 19, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$198.67Jan 19, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$81.54Jan 18, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$20.00Jan 17, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$20.00Jan 17, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$20.00Jan 17, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$100.00Jan 17, 01:49 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down on January 17?$21.39Jan 17, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on January 17?$143.07Jan 17, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on January 17?$20.00Jan 16, 19:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $118.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 23:19 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 00:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".