Spicy-Jiffy
0x3f2d2dbd6d68500215813b9730976231f908ddc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-844.30
Realised
$79.62
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on January 18?
22750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-63.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 13?
2750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on January 16?
2600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 39°F or below on January 16?
2318 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 15?
1640 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on January 15?
1450 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on January 14?
1210 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on January 17?
1140 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on January 17?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on January 13?
1030 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on January 23?$8.73Feb 2, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on January 23?$20.00Feb 2, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 2, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on January 23?$2.27Jan 23, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 52°F or higher on January 23?$3.60Jan 23, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on January 23?$16.59Jan 23, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 20?$10.00Jan 23, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January 19?$2.94Jan 23, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January 19?$19.97Jan 23, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on January 21?$10.00Jan 23, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 20?$10.00Jan 23, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on January 21?$10.00Jan 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on January 21?$0.00Jan 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on January 21?$10.00Jan 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on January 19?$10.00Jan 23, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 20?$10.00Jan 23, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 21?$10.00Jan 23, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 22?$10.00Jan 23, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22?$11.68Jan 23, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 22?$19.99Jan 23, 16:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 2, 22:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.